shadowcons

In The Year 2040...

2008-07-04T11:37:00.000-07:00

The political science journal Foreign Policy celebrates its 35 year anniversary this month, and in comemoration, they've asked sixteen leading thinkers to answer the following question:
What are the ideas, values, and institutions the world takes for granted that may disappear in the next 35 years?
The answers are intriguing. Some of the replies aren't terribly surprising, if you're familiar with the authors: Lawrence Lessig argues that The Public Domain will be gone within 35 years, for example, and Esther Dyson suggests that Anonymity won't last (Lessig's article freely available, Dyson's requires free registration). These two are among the most technology-focused essays of the group; there are no Kurzweilian predictions that the human species won't be here in post-Singularity 2040.
Other pieces are a bit more provocative. French economist Jacques Attali suggests that Monogamy will be but a memory by 2040, while GBN founder Peter Schwartz argues that the War on Drugs is not long for this world (both articles are free). Both are hard to imagine from the perspective of 2005, but not completely impossible.
About half of the pieces would not be considered radical forecasts, while the remainder arguably push the boundaries of how fast society can change in a generation. Eight of the sixteen articles require a Foreign Policy subscription, including the one that could be the most controversial of the bunch: former Singaporean prime minister Lee Kuan Yew's argument that Laissez-Faire Procreation will no longer be allowed by 2040.
Most surprising is the lack of any significant environmental predictions (one article says that Auto Emissions will be gone, but that's not a terribly radical forecast). This derives in large part from the way the question is phrased -- we don't tend to think of the global ecosystem as an idea, value or institution. We do, however, have fundamental ideas, values and institutions related to the environment. Suggesting that (say) meat-eating or extractive industries (mining, drilling for oil, etc.) will be gone by 2040 isn't as provocative as claiming that monogamy and sovereignty are on their way out.
But thinking about the future is a game we all can play. So, inspired by Foreign Policy's anniversary, let's make our own forecasts. What do you think will be gone in 35 years?

Global Warming to Melt North Pole Ice Cover For First Time in Recorded History

2008-07-04T11:32:00.000-07:00

Shadowcons has previously covered the frantic pace of melt in Greenland, which is accelerating, dumping vast amounts of water into the sea. Meanwhile, the North Pole has been steadily melting away as well. Fortunately, the North Pole ice is floating, and thus will not affect sea levels, but its dissolution is an important indicator of warming.
While some remain critical that global warming is occurring at all, the melting of the North Pole represents a sharp indicator against voices of doubt. Now scientists are predicting that a major milestone will be reached this summer or next -- the disappearance of the North Pole's ice cover during the Arctic Summer.To most, imagining the North Pole without ice -- only water -- is an incredible prospect. But that's the reality of a warming world.The prediction comes from the U.S.'s top climate researchers at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado. They predict that in September, there is a good chance that the ice will be gone on the pole. While this is obviously a rather sobering event, the scientists aren't afraid to poke a little fun at the climatological milestone. Says the center's senior research scientist, Mark Serreze, "We kind of have an informal betting pool going around in our center and that betting pool is 'does the North Pole melt out this summer?'"About half the researchers are betting that the geographic pole, currently covered in ice will be ice free this fall. Last year already saw a similarly landmark event -- the Northwest Passage was ice free last September for the first time in recorded history.All of these events are merely part of a larger trend according to researchers. Says Serreze, "What we've seen through the past few decades is the Arctic sea ice cover is becoming thinner and thinner as the system warms up."Why are they uncertain about whether this summer's warmth will pierce the polar ice? The warming fluctuates largely with weather patterns, so the metaphorical straw that breaks the camel's back will likely be weather, either this year or next."Last year, we had sort of a perfect weather pattern to get rid of ice to open up that Northwest Passage," explains Serreze, "This year, a different pattern can set up. so maybe we'll preserve some ice there. We're in a wait-and-see mode right now. We'll see what happens."While the event is significant, it will not cause any problems says Serreze.He states, "From the viewpoint of the science, the North Pole is just another point in the globe, but it does have this symbolic meaning. There's supposed to be ice at the North Pole. The fact that we may not have any by the end of this summer could be quite a symbolic change."He does say that the rate of disappearance still "astounds" him, even though he's used to seeing unusual weather daily. He says the development is just a sign of how global warming is picking up its pace.Says Serreze, "Five years ago, to think that we'd even be talking about the possibility of the North Pole melting out in the summer, I would have never thought it. If you talked to me or other scientists just a few years ago, we were saying that we might lose all or most of the summer sea ice cover by anywhere from 2050 to 2100. Then, recently, we kind of revised those estimates, maybe as early as 2030. Now, there's people out there saying it might be even before that. So, things are happening pretty quick up there."Some skeptics of global warming have also suggested that the melt is part of a cyclical process. Flat out wrong, says Serreze. He explains, "It's not cyclical at this point. I think we understand the physics behind this pretty well. We've known for at least 30 years, from our earliest climate models, that it's the Arctic where we'd see the first signs of global warming."Not above a bit of scolding of global warming skeptical, Serreze says, "It's a situation where we hate to say we told you so, but we told you so."While Serreze says that the climate effects of warming may be damaging, there may be a bit of a silver lining for the time being in the clouds of global warming. The disappearance of ice will allow oil to be saved on shipping routes by using the Northwest Passage. Also, speaking of oil, there are large oil reserves at the pole. In perhaps the greatest irony, global warming may free these reserves, which in turn will help contribute to more warming.Much understanding remains to be developed of the causes, mechanics, and ramifications of warming, but as the stark face of reality rears its ugly head in the form of historic melting, it becomes clear that there's little room remaining for skepticism that massive climate change is indeed occurring.

Storm clouds are gathering as NVIDIA faces a reinvigorated competitor

2008-07-04T11:19:00.000-07:00

As the old saying goes, when it rains it pours. NVIDIA was performing beautifully thanks to aggressive pricing and performance of its 8000 series of graphics cards. It looked poised to leave competitor AMD (formerly ATI) in the dust. However, the latest round in graphics war has marked a dramatic turnaround with AMD's 4850 and 4870 outperforming NVIDIA's offerings at a lower price.
While NVIDIA still holds a tenuous grip on the highest end offerings, with its GeForce GTX 280 GPU, this might soon slip, depending on the performance of AMD's dual processor 4870 X2 (R700) card, likely coming in Q3 2008. Meanwhile, NVIDIA faces challenges from Intel in its low-end and laptop graphics offerings, and from AMD's PUMA chipset/graphics package in the laptop market.The economic repercussions of NVIDIA's slippage are already visible. NVIDIA announced yesterday that it was going to turn in revenue of $875 million to $950 million for Q2 2008, which ends July 27. This is significantly lower than the current analyst expectations of $1.1 billion.That was not the end of the bad news from NVIDIA either. It announced that it was facing a massive recall, due to overheating GPUs in notebook computers. NVIDIA reported higher than average failures in both the laptop GPUs and in laptop chipsets.NVIDIA said that the chips and their packaging were made with materials that proved to be too "weak". NVIDIA passes the blame to notebook manufacturers, which it says contributes to the problem. Typically notebooks have poorer ventilation and components concentrated in a smaller space than desktop computers.The result of the recalls is that NVIDIA will be taking a onetime charge of $150M USD to $200M USD to cover the damages. It plans to use the money to repair or replace defective parts. It also hopes to collect part of the money from insurers it uses. However, it has acknowledged its problems and switched the materials it uses.The news has resulted in NVIDIA taking a beating on the stock market, sliding over 25 percent.