The political science journal Foreign Policy celebrates its 35 year anniversary this month, and in comemoration, they've asked sixteen leading thinkers to answer the following question:
What are the ideas, values, and institutions the world takes for granted that may disappear in the next 35 years?
The answers are intriguing. Some of the replies aren't terribly surprising, if you're familiar with the authors: Lawrence Lessig argues that The Public Domain will be gone within 35 years, for example, and Esther Dyson suggests that Anonymity won't last (Lessig's article freely available, Dyson's requires free registration). These two are among the most technology-focused essays of the group; there are no Kurzweilian predictions that the human species won't be here in post-Singularity 2040.
Other pieces are a bit more provocative. French economist Jacques Attali suggests that Monogamy will be but a memory by 2040, while GBN founder Peter Schwartz argues that the War on Drugs is not long for this world (both articles are free). Both are hard to imagine from the perspective of 2005, but not completely impossible.
About half of the pieces would not be considered radical forecasts, while the remainder arguably push the boundaries of how fast society can change in a generation. Eight of the sixteen articles require a Foreign Policy subscription, including the one that could be the most controversial of the bunch: former Singaporean prime minister Lee Kuan Yew's argument that Laissez-Faire Procreation will no longer be allowed by 2040.
Most surprising is the lack of any significant environmental predictions (one article says that Auto Emissions will be gone, but that's not a terribly radical forecast). This derives in large part from the way the question is phrased -- we don't tend to think of the global ecosystem as an idea, value or institution. We do, however, have fundamental ideas, values and institutions related to the environment. Suggesting that (say) meat-eating or extractive industries (mining, drilling for oil, etc.) will be gone by 2040 isn't as provocative as claiming that monogamy and sovereignty are on their way out.
But thinking about the future is a game we all can play. So, inspired by Foreign Policy's anniversary, let's make our own forecasts. What do you think will be gone in 35 years?
What are the ideas, values, and institutions the world takes for granted that may disappear in the next 35 years?
The answers are intriguing. Some of the replies aren't terribly surprising, if you're familiar with the authors: Lawrence Lessig argues that The Public Domain will be gone within 35 years, for example, and Esther Dyson suggests that Anonymity won't last (Lessig's article freely available, Dyson's requires free registration). These two are among the most technology-focused essays of the group; there are no Kurzweilian predictions that the human species won't be here in post-Singularity 2040.
Other pieces are a bit more provocative. French economist Jacques Attali suggests that Monogamy will be but a memory by 2040, while GBN founder Peter Schwartz argues that the War on Drugs is not long for this world (both articles are free). Both are hard to imagine from the perspective of 2005, but not completely impossible.
About half of the pieces would not be considered radical forecasts, while the remainder arguably push the boundaries of how fast society can change in a generation. Eight of the sixteen articles require a Foreign Policy subscription, including the one that could be the most controversial of the bunch: former Singaporean prime minister Lee Kuan Yew's argument that Laissez-Faire Procreation will no longer be allowed by 2040.
Most surprising is the lack of any significant environmental predictions (one article says that Auto Emissions will be gone, but that's not a terribly radical forecast). This derives in large part from the way the question is phrased -- we don't tend to think of the global ecosystem as an idea, value or institution. We do, however, have fundamental ideas, values and institutions related to the environment. Suggesting that (say) meat-eating or extractive industries (mining, drilling for oil, etc.) will be gone by 2040 isn't as provocative as claiming that monogamy and sovereignty are on their way out.
But thinking about the future is a game we all can play. So, inspired by Foreign Policy's anniversary, let's make our own forecasts. What do you think will be gone in 35 years?
No comments:
Post a Comment